AGP Executive Report

DHL Deal: DHL eCommerce has signed an agreement to acquire Venipak, giving the group a fully owned parcel-delivery presence across Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia (Venipak’s ~800 lockers and pickup network will be integrated gradually, pending regulators). Retail & Demand: Lithuania’s retail sales growth cooled to 5.8% year-on-year in June (down from 6.9% in May), with non-food slowing while food growth picked up. Defence Industry Push: Lithuania’s PM and President’s economic adviser are pushing for the country to move from buying defence gear to producing it, with a goal of exportable capabilities. NATO Industrial Capacity: Finland’s YIT plans a roughly €30m Leopard 2A8 assembly and maintenance hub in Kaunas, aiming to strengthen sustainment on NATO’s eastern flank. EU–China Trade Tensions: The European Commission will seek clarifications with China over Beijing’s export-control bans on 14 European defence-related entities. Bilateral Business Ties: Lithuania and Vietnam discussed deeper cooperation, including business connectivity and fintech links. Agriculture Risk: Lithuania’s insurers report summer weather damage affecting about 50,000 hectares of crops, with compensation already paid and expected to rise. Finance & Crypto Policy: EMBank chairman Ekmel Çilingir argues for euro stablecoins to protect EU monetary sovereignty as dollar stablecoins dominate. Energy & Logistics Pressure: Container lines are preparing new fuel surcharges as Hormuz-related disruptions lift bunker costs, while Ukraine’s fuel situation is framed as logistics strain rather than a full shortage. Regional Markets: UEFA’s next media rights tender for 2027-31 has opened in Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, with bids due Aug 24.

DHL & Last-Mile Expansion: DHL eCommerce has signed a definitive deal to acquire Venipak Group, giving DHL a fully owned Baltic parcel network in Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia (about 800 parcel lockers and pick-up points), with integration into DHL eCommerce pending regulators. Banking & Credit Outlook: Moody’s upgraded OTP Group’s outlook to positive after OTP moves to full control of Luminor Holding, boosting OTP’s eurozone exposure across the Baltics while flagging weaker profitability. Defense Industry: Finnish YIT will build a ~€30m Leopard 2A8 assembly and maintenance facility in Kaunas, aiming to support Lithuania’s tank sustainment and workforce growth from 2026–2027. Trade & Diplomacy: Taiwan and Lithuania restarted talks on a new economic cooperation action plan after Lithuania’s cabinet change, targeting deeper trade ties. Energy Markets: The Nordic-Baltic Hydrogen Corridor says 87% of projected 2040 capacity has early market interest, with operators including Amber Grid (Lithuania). Migration Policy: Lithuania’s new government signals tougher migration rules for foreign workers, drawing business and legal criticism over potential labor shortages.

Defense & Industry: Finland’s YIT will build a Leopard 2A8 production and service facility in Kaunas, with construction starting Aug 2026 and completion targeted for Nov 2027; the ~€30m plant is expected to support Lithuania’s tank brigade plans and create 80+ jobs by 2028. Logistics & Trade: DHL eCommerce agreed to acquire Lithuania-based Venipak, folding its Baltic parcel operations into DHL eCommerce to strengthen last-mile delivery capacity across Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia. Energy & Infrastructure: The Nordic-Baltic Hydrogen Corridor says 87% of planned 2040 capacity has initial market backing, aiming to move up to 2.7m tonnes of green hydrogen annually via a consortium led by Amber Grid (Lithuania). Migration Policy: Lithuania’s new government signals tougher migration rules, including shorter work permits and limits on family reunification—already drawing pushback from legal experts and business over labour shortages. EU Sanctions & Security: Lithuania’s foreign ministry proposes amendments to bar pro-war Russian and Belarusian public figures and restrict foreign real estate near strategic infrastructure. Business & Finance: Lithuania’s diplomatic push includes a proposed embassy in Brazil to boost export ties with Mercosur. Digital Assets: Wavebridge signed an MoU with Jito Foundation to develop JitoSOL-based institutional products for South Korea.

EU Sanctions Update: The EU adopted its 21st Russia sanctions package, extending the oil price cap, adding 218 people and entities, and tightening curbs on Russia-linked banking, crypto networks and the shadow fleet—after member-state compromises including LNG carrier exemptions. Lithuania Security & Justice: Lithuanian prosecutors opened a pre-trial probe into a citizen suspected of spying for Russia, allegedly gathering info on military facilities and troop movements via Telegram and sharing photos while traveling. Vilnius Waste Crunch: A court granted VAATC interim measures against Energesman, barring interference at Vilnius waste sorting facilities until end-2026, allowing VAATC to take over the Gariūnai site. Baltic Business & Finance: Swedbank faced a $50m NYDFS penalty tied to withholding information during a Panama Papers-era investigation, with the settlement focused on cooperation failures rather than Baltic AML conduct. Regional Trade & Jobs: OECD data shows unemployment pressures across Europe, with Lithuania among countries above the OECD average. Higher Education & Talent: Taiwan’s foreign minister closed a TES Semicon training programme, with 155 trainees including Lithuania participants, underscoring semiconductor workforce demand. Energy Costs Watch: Cyprus reported an 8% year-on-year drop in June petroleum product sales as fuel prices stayed elevated amid Middle East-linked volatility.

Lithuanian Security Probe: Prosecutors opened a pre-trial case over a Lithuanian citizen suspected of spying for Russia, allegedly using Telegram to pass photos and details on military facilities, radar-related equipment and Vilnius Airport movements. Municipal Waste Crunch: A Vilnius court ordered Energesman to stop interfering with VAATC’s waste-sorting operations at the Gariūnai facilities until a final ruling, backing a municipal takeover plan. Baltic Business & Trade: Lithuanian furniture group SBA completed its exit from Belarus by selling its Mebelain plant for a symbolic €1. Fintech & Capital Flows: Zubr Capital’s Q2 digest says European tech funding is concentrating into strategic sectors, with more support via growth vehicles, guarantees and credit facilities. EU Money & Design: The European Central Bank launched a public vote on ten euro banknote design sets (same fixed motifs, different studio styles) ahead of a late-2026 decision. Regional Labor Snapshot: OECD data ranks Finland and Spain among the highest unemployment rates, with Lithuania also above the OECD average.

Tariff Shock Meets Local Resilience: Lithuania’s SBA Home says its new automated furniture plant in the US (opened after the 2025 “Liberation Day” tariffs) helped cushion higher costs as Washington signals fresh levies on EU goods. Corporate Exit: SBA also sold its Belarus “Mebelain” factory for a symbolic €1, completing its pullback from the Belarus market. Waste Management Court Fight: A Vilnius court granted interim measures in a dispute involving VAATC and Energesman, effectively blocking Energesman from interfering with waste-sorting operations at Vilnius facilities while the city works to keep services running. Labour Market Snapshot: OECD data for May 2026 puts Finland and Spain at the top of unemployment in the bloc, with Lithuania also above the OECD average. Tech & Capital Flows: A European tech funding digest says Q2 financing kept concentrating around strategic sectors, with more support via growth vehicles and credit facilities. Security/Trade Pressure: China added 14 EU entities, including Lithuania’s Ekspla, to its export control list in retaliation for EU Russia sanctions. Regional Business Context: Lithuania joined a coalition reaffirming the 2016 South China Sea arbitration ruling, underscoring how geopolitics keeps shaping trade and investment risk.

Lithuania Security & Courts: Prosecutors opened a pre-trial probe into a Lithuanian citizen suspected of spying for Russia, alleging Telegram-linked contacts and court-authorised surveillance tied to military facilities, radar-maker activity and equipment movements at Vilnius Airport. Waste Management: A Vilnius court granted interim measures in a civil dispute involving Energesman, barring interference with VAATC waste operations at the Gariūnai sorting site until a final ruling by end-2026. EU Monetary Policy: The European Central Bank launched a public vote on how ten design studios render the next euro banknotes’ fixed motifs, with final decisions expected late 2026. Labour Market Snapshot: OECD data show Finland and Spain at the top of unemployment in May 2026, while Lithuania is listed among countries above the OECD average. Trade & Industry: Lithuania’s SBA completed its exit from Belarus by selling a furniture factory for a symbolic €1. Fintech & Capital: Zubr Capital reports European tech funding in Q2 2026 stayed selective but shifted toward strategic sectors via growth vehicles and U.S. strategic capital. Regional Business & Mobility: Estonia’s unicorns-per-capita ranking is back in the spotlight, with analysts warning the metric may mislead policy focus. Sports & Tourism: Klaipėda will host the ORC European Championship for the first time in August, boosting the city’s event-driven economy.

Vilnius Waste Crisis: A court ordered Energesman to stop interfering with VAATC’s waste management at the Gariūnai sorting centre, letting the municipal company take over operations while a final ruling is pending. Security & Espionage: Lithuanian prosecutors opened a pre-trial probe into a citizen suspected of spying for Russia, alleging Telegram-linked tasking, photos of military infrastructure, and surveillance tied to Vilnius Airport and radar-related firms. Aviation & Jobs: FL Technics named Saulius Bajarunas as CEO from Sept. 1, continuing the MRO group’s expansion push. Trade & Sanctions: China added 14 EU entities to its export control list, including Lithuania’s Ekspla, after the EU’s 21st Russia sanctions package—raising new compliance and supply-chain risks for dual-use tech. Finance & Compliance: New York regulators fined Swedbank $50m over failures to fully cooperate with investigators tied to the Panama Papers, underscoring scrutiny of information-sharing. Tech Funding Watch: A Q2 digest says European tech capital is increasingly funneled through strategic-sector vehicles and U.S. strategic money, not just classic venture rounds. Euro Area Update: The ECB opened a public vote on design styles for the next euro banknotes, moving the process toward a late-2026 decision. Regional Deal: Sweden, Poland, Romania and Lithuania formally acceded to ASEAN’s Treaty of Amity and Cooperation, expanding the pact’s reach beyond Southeast Asia. Labour Market Snapshot: OECD-based reporting highlights unemployment pressures in parts of Europe, with Finland and Spain among the highest in 2026. Crypto Law Abroad: Russia passed its first comprehensive crypto market bill, setting up licensing and oversight for exchanges and custodians.

Lithuanian Business & Trade: SBA, a major Baltic furniture group, has exited Belarus by selling its “Mebelain” plant for a symbolic €1, signaling a continued pullback from sanctioned markets. EU–China Trade Controls: China has added 14 EU entities—including Lithuania’s Ekspla UAB and Bulgaria’s Opticoelectron Group—to its export control list in retaliation for the EU’s latest Russia sanctions, tightening dual-use supply routes. Aviation & Connectivity: Lithuania is drafting contingency steps if airBaltic cuts services or exits, as the carrier faces financial strain and Latvia seeks investors to avoid insolvency risk. Corporate Leadership: FL Technics, a Lithuanian MRO provider, named Saulius Bajarunas as CEO from Sept. 1, aiming to keep scaling global maintenance services. Energy Storage & Industry: CATL and Solarpro signed a 2 GWh sodium-ion BESS supply deal targeting Central and Eastern Europe, with Lithuania among the focus markets. Defense Innovation: Naval Group and Lithuanian research partners launched SHIELD Lab to support Lithuania’s MP-OPV program and future naval capability development. Security & Markets: Lithuania opened an investigation into a citizen suspected of gathering military information for Russian intelligence, including activity around Vilnius Airport.

Lithuania–Aviation Contingency: Lithuania is drafting contingency measures in case airBaltic cuts capacity or exits the market, with Transport Minister Juras Taminskas saying authorities are monitoring the carrier’s financial situation and will coordinate with airports in Vilnius, Kaunas and Palanga. Energy Storage Deal: CATL has signed a strategic agreement with Bulgaria’s Solarpro to supply 2 GWh of sodium-ion battery energy storage systems for Central and Eastern Europe, with Lithuania among the target markets. Open Data for Business: A practical explainer breaks down how EU open-data rules (from the Open Data Directive to high-value dataset obligations) can turn free public datasets into real commercial products. EU Sanctions Update: The EU adopted its 21st Russia sanctions package, publishing 218 new sanctioned entities and widening coverage to sectors like banks, drone makers, ship services and crypto platforms. Defence Industry Cooperation: Naval Group unveiled an updated, more heavily armed MP-OPV design for Lithuania and launched SHIELD Lab with local research institutions to build an R&D roadmap for the programme. Baltic Finance: Signet Baltic Bond Fund (Latvia) reported a 7.6% return in its first year, aiming to channel capital into Baltic corporate bonds. Online Security Risk: Investigators link Lithuanian-branded mobile apps to Belarus/Russia data flows, raising surveillance concerns around political exiles. Corporate M&A Watch: The European Commission conditionally approved Paramount’s Warner Bros. Discovery acquisition, requiring divestments and distribution restrictions tied to competition concerns.

Baltic Banking Deal: OTP Bank has agreed to acquire Luminor, a major Baltic lender, in a move that reshapes ownership in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania and signals a new consolidation phase for regional finance. Fuel Costs Watch: Eurostat data show Hungary’s fuel prices rose just 2.3% year-on-year in June, the slowest in the EU, while Lithuania hit 23.5%—a reminder that inflation pressure on households is uneven across the region. Lithuanian Corporate Performance: Lithuania’s Centre of Registers reports 2025 results from 136,000+ legal entities: combined revenue reached €152.2bn (+~7%), with standout growth at Lifosa and Vinted, while Orlen Lietuva saw major declines. Energy Infrastructure Pipeline: The Nordic-Baltic Hydrogen Corridor is projected to drive demand of about 79.2 TWh by 2040, with commercial operations targeted around 2033. Online Security & Compliance: A report flags Lithuanian-branded mobile apps that may route data to Belarus and Russia, raising surveillance risks for political exiles. EU Competition/Media: The European Commission cleared Paramount’s Warner Bros. Discovery deal with conditions, including divestment steps tied to competition concerns in film distribution. Lithuania–Poland Ties: Prime Minister Mindaugas Sinkevičius says Lithuania wants deeper strategic cooperation with Poland, prioritizing security, energy resilience, transport and economic links.

Lithuania–Poland Security Reset: PM Mindaugas Sinkevičius told Polish President Karol Nawrocki Lithuania wants deeper strategic ties, focusing on defence, Ukraine support, and resilience of energy and critical infrastructure. EU Migration Solidarity Debate: Lithuania’s interior minister argues for paying the full EU solidarity contribution instead of taking migrants, citing public tension; Lithuania’s plan mixes relocations and a EUR 1.14m financial payment for 58 people. Lithuanian Corporate Pulse: Centre of Registers data shows 2025 combined revenue of EUR 152.2bn (+7%); top performers include Lifosa and Vinted, while Orlen Lietuva and Thermo Fisher Baltics saw the biggest drops. Baltic Power Resilience: Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia agreed to jointly build power-system reserve capacities to restore electricity faster after disruptions, with transmission operators assessing needed equipment and seeking EU funding. Digital Payments Benchmark: ECB data highlights euro-area non-cash growth in H2 2025, while Cyprus leads on card and instant payments—useful context for Lithuania’s own payments push. Online Child Safety Policy: EU discussions on minimum ages for social media keep platforms under pressure, but the approach still leans on enforcement and digital literacy rather than blanket bans. Tech & Markets: Revolut’s valuation jumps to $115bn in a secondary sale and it wins Australia’s first full fintech banking licence; ESMA also reports a surge in cross-border retail clients, with Lithuania among the fastest risers. Energy Procurement Shift: Europe is moving toward hybrid PPAs as solar prices rise and buyers pay more for storage-linked flexibility.

Baltic Power Security: Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia agreed to jointly build power-system reserve capacities to speed electricity restoration after damage, with grid operators assessing needed transformers, generators and other assets and seeking EU funding. Lithuania–EU Politics: Lithuania says Ukraine and Moldova are ready for the remaining EU accession “clusters,” pushing back against Hungary’s blocking of further enlargement steps. Fintech & Banking: Revolut confirmed a $115bn valuation in a secondary sale and secured Australia’s first full fintech banking licence, while ESMA data shows cross-border retail clients in Lithuania surged—driven largely by one firm—raising both clients and complaints. Energy & Trade: KN Energies invited market players to request extra 2027 Klaipėda LNG terminal capacity, and Allied Biofuels signed logistics routes with Latvia-based Pro Logistic Services for SAF/e-SAF exports from Uzbekistan to Europe and the UAE. Sanctions Evasion Probe: A joint investigation alleges Lithuanian firms supplied Starlink terminals and drone-related parts to Russia via intermediaries and misdeclared shipments. Tech & Industry: Western Baltic Engineering unveiled a concept vessel for green methanol bunkering at Klaipėda, supporting port infrastructure plans. Social & Demographics: Lithuania’s population decline remains stark as the EU warns ageing and shrinking demographics will strain workforces and budgets.

Energy & Industry: Akola Group says it has completed an EUR 11mn biomethane plant in Lithuania (Lukšiai), targeting up to 36.3 GWh a year and using livestock and organic waste to cut mineral fertiliser needs. Banking & Capital Markets: Urbo Bankas has finished the second phase of its bond offering, raising EUR 3.14mn from 328 investors, while Lithuania’s central bank is scrutinising OTP Bank’s planned Luminor acquisition over OTP’s Russia exposure. Trade & Energy Security: KN Energies is inviting requests for extra Klaipėda LNG terminal capacity for 2027, including regasification and LNG reloading slots. Innovation & Finance: NIB has signed a 4-year EUR 22mn loan to Helsinki AI infrastructure firm Verda (DataCrunch) to expand high-performance compute access. Baltic Power Build-out: Ignitis Renewables is moving ahead with a €35m Latvia battery project (Tume, 107MW/215MWh) and says it also has multiple storage builds in Lithuania. Policy & Diplomacy: Lithuania’s adviser to President Nausėda says economic cooperation with Taiwan is still “pragmatic” and depends on Taiwan’s willingness to deliver tangible trade and investment. EU Sanctions Watch: The EU delayed its 21st Russia sanctions package to July 23 amid disputes, especially around tightening Russian LNG restrictions. Business Support to Ukraine: Lithuania delivered over 24 tons of energy equipment to Kharkiv to help repair and stabilise critical infrastructure.

Banking Deal Watch: Lithuania’s central bank said Hungary’s OTP Bank raises “legitimate questions” over its Russia operations as OTP moves to acquire Luminor, the Baltics’ third-largest lender, with regulators now set to review the transaction. Public Transport Green Shift: Lithuania’s transport ministry approved funding for 141 electric and hydrogen buses to renew fleets across major cities and regions, backed by the Sustainable Mobility Fund. Energy Security & Aid: Lithuania delivered over 24 tons of emergency energy equipment to Ukraine’s Kharkiv region to help repair and stabilize attacked infrastructure. Renewables Storage Push: Ignitis Renewables in Latvia green-lit a €35m 107MW/215MWh battery project tied to a solar farm, with operations targeted for 2028. Lithuanian Startup Growth: Cannumo’s fermented probiotic berry drink Goodie is scaling fast across retail and pharmacies, betting on gut-health habits over capsules. Tech & Markets: Coveron’s survey suggests Americans use AI more cautiously than other Western countries, while Lithuania-based firm data highlights shifting consumer attitudes. Business & Compliance: A customs probe in the region targeted a scheme importing new goods declared as second-hand to cut duties, leading to seizures and confiscations.

Banking Deal: Hungary’s OTP Bank has signed an agreement to acquire Luminor Holding (100% of the parent of Luminor Bank) from a Blackstone- and DNB-backed consortium, aiming to expand across all three Baltic markets; completion is pending regulators. EU Digital Enforcement: The European Commission hit AliExpress with a record ~$629m fine under the Digital Services Act over alleged failures to assess illegal and unsafe products. Agriculture Finance: Under LANDE’s EIF-backed guarantee programme, 46% of loans in Latvia and Lithuania went to farmers under 40, supporting generational renewal. Tourism Push: Latvia’s LIAA is ramping up summer tourism demand generation, with extra focus on Latgale and more promotion in Lithuania and Estonia. Tech & Space: Finnish Kuva Space and Japan’s IHI are exploring hyperspectral satellite builds for Japan’s multi-sensor Earth observation constellation. Lithuania Business Spotlight: A.J. Chocolate House, founded in Vilnius, is launching a Florida-focused franchise push in North America. Security Watch: Lithuania’s defense minister warns Russia may seek a new escalation targeting the Baltics and Poland.